Was bestimmt die Lebensdauer von HDDs?

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The bigger issue, according to Gibson, isn't SMART attributes or the effect of temperature on performance, but the fact that drives fail too often. "Failure rates are always much higher than the manufacturers claim," he says, pointing to Google's data showing an annual failure rate of eight percent for drives in service for two years. That might not sound high, but it's one out of every twelve drives.

Manufacturers have a perverse incentive not to make their drives more reliable, though, since they need to keep selling drives to stay in business. Gibson calls this a case of "perfect market economics." He says that the situation is analogous to software design, where many companies just don't have the economic motive to create bug-free, secure code. In the same way, he says, "Today's hard drive manufacturers have little economic motive for producing highly reliable hard drives. Hard drives have become disposable commodities with a two-year life."

Gibson's complaints about the manufacturer-provided numbers for drive failure are well-founded, according to another recent report on disk failures. This one, authored by two Carnegie Mellon computer science professors, was voted one of the best papers from this month's FAST '07 conference. It found that drive failures are much higher in real-world situations than the manufacturer's mean time to failure (MTTF) number indicates.